Saturday, June 26, 2004
Nads for Nader!
The rest of the polling data is inconsistent, however we will go with what we've got.
Kerry, a four-term U.S. senator from Massachusetts, gained 44 percent in Pennsylvania compared with 43 percent for Bush among 839 registered voters surveyed June 21-22 by Quinnipiac University.
The two states were among the 17 closest races in the 2000 election, when Bush defeated Democrat and former Vice President Al Gore. Bush, 57, won Ohio by 3.6 percentage points in 2000; Gore, 56, took Pennsylvania by 4.3 points. Kerry, 60, and Bush are spending most of their advertising dollars in those 17 so-called battleground states.
``Pennsylvania is living up to expectations as having one of the closest presidential battles in the nation,'' said Clay Richards, assistant director of the polling institute at Hamden, Connecticut-based Quinnipiac, in a statement. ``Ralph Nader clearly is cutting into Senator Kerry's vote.''
Nader, 70, a consumer activist, garnered 7 percent support in the Quinnipiac poll. In a poll last month, Kerry drew the support of 44 percent to Bush's 41 percent and Nader's 6 percent.
In the new survey, 49 percent said they would vote for Kerry in a two-way battle excluding Nader, while 43 percent picked Bush. The survey's margin of error is plus or minus 3.4 percentage points. Last month, Kerry led by 3 percentage points in a race with Bush alone. Quinnipiac counted responses only from registered voters and didn't determine how likely respondents are to vote.
In Ohio, Kerry's 6 point lead includes Nader in the race, according to Manchester, New Hampshire-based American Research Group's poll. Nader gained 2 percent support and 6 percent were undecided. The poll had a margin of error of 4 percentage points.
Democratic party leaders including party Chairman Terry McAuliffe and Nancy Pelosi, the party leader in the U.S. House, say Nader may be a ``spoiler'' in the election by drawing votes from Kerry.
``His presence in the race will jeopardize the election of a Democratic president,'' Pelosi told reporters today. ``I think he should get out of the race.
In 2000, Nader ran as the Green Party candidate and got 2.7 percent of the vote nationwide. He drew as much as 5 percent in some states, such as Minnesota, that the Bush and Kerry campaigns expect will be decided by a few percentage points.
Nader doesn't have his name on the ballot yet in every state for the Nov. 2 election.