Friday, June 11, 2004
don't take cover...
It's only a dud.
A great relief.
While I was finishing my eggs and grits this morning, a new bush ad entered… ahem, intruded my home.
Call the police. Tell them that unwarranted intruders are appearing on your large screen television, paid for with your cheques from the Bush Tax Cut...
It's quite an optimistic ad, citing an economic recovery "after recession, 9-11, and war".
Who would have thought it?
CAUTION - THIS NEXT PART WILL GIVE HEADACHES TO ANYONE WHO HAS ANY KNOWLEDGE OF ECONOMICS.
Their main argument is the creation of 1.4 million jobs since august.
And ~947,000 since March.
There's a problem, however.
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics , from August-January roughly 1.5 million full time jobs were created while 830,000 part-time jobs were lost.
Shock. Why, that's just as shocking as that the employment picture was worse in Clinton's first term than Bush's first term despite Recession, 9-11 and war.
However, the net gain in jobs since January is only due to an increase in 514,000 part-time jobs, while we have actually LOST 82,000 full-time jobs.
Perhaps someone should explain to Dan the difference between a reduction in the unemployment numbers, the unemployment rate and the jobless claims numbers. Here, let me explain.
Suppose Nation X had two industries, guns and butter. Butter laid off 200 workers while Guns hired 3000. There would, therefore, be an increase in the jobless claims rate...and a decrease in the unemployment rate. Thus, jobs would be created, not destroyed.
If Americans are having trouble finding 9-5 jobs again, I'm afraid this "recovery" is coming to a screeching halt.
Horror. That, or the full gravity of the capital tax cuts haven't happened yet...
This employment anomaly can explain two things:
First is why, according to Bushie's ad, John Kerry is "talking about the great depression". If you actually read the quote given by the ad, John Kerry isn't saying we are in a great depression (although, if you're too slow to read the quote, you might think that.), he's saying this is the slowest recovery since the great depression .
Ah, so nuanced. Blame the Voters for being slow.
Second is the reason why the American public has recently shifted its opinion on the economy. In January, 66% of Americans believed the economy was getting better. Today, aided by rising oil prices, it's back down to 47%.
So you say Rising Oil Prices and not the search for jobs is the problem? Ah. So if oil prices fall...
This is also in conjunction with a year-long peak 58% disapproval rating for how GW is handling the economy.
That doesn't make sense, nor is it backed by polling data. It would appear, chillingly, that the Investor class is confident in the economy and would become more so if, oh, I don't know, oil prices fall...
Conventional Interpretation: Price is below the moving average so the trend is down.
Additional Analysis: Market trend is DOWN.
Mov Avg 3 lines Indicator:
Note: In evaluating the short term, plot1 represents the fast moving average, and plot2 is the slow moving average. For the longer term analysis, plot2 is the fast moving average and plot3 is the slow moving average
Conventional Interpretation - Short Term: The market is bearish because the fast moving average is below the slow moving average.
Additional Analysis - Short Term: Recently the market has been extremely bearish, however currently the market has lost a some of its bearishness due to the following: the fast moving average slope is up from previous bar, price is above the fast moving average. Its possible that we may see a market rally here. if so, the rally might turn out to be a good short selling opportunity.
Conventional Interpretation - Long Term: The market is bearish because the fast moving average is below the slow moving average.
Additional Analysis - Long Term: The market is EXTREMELY BEARISH. Everything in this indicator is pointing to lower prices: the fast average is below the slow average; the fast average is on a downward slope from the previous bar; the slow average is on a downward slope from the previous bar; and price is below the fast average and the slow average.
…John Kerry, not just a part-time president.
Well, yes, he's not the President, he's a Senator. And not for long.